I. Domain of Climate Analysis and Modelling

The department’s scientific focus covers a wide range of topics related to research on climate and its behaviour. It deals with issues related to analyses of past and current climate and climate modelling, including extreme phenomena and long-term trends. The department also uses global and regional climate models for modelling the future situation as well as for reconstructing past climate conditions. Another important subject area addressed within the department is quantification of climate change impacts on crop production and the search for suitable strategies to minimize their negative consequences.

The domain’s main objectives are as follow:

a) development of methodology for modelling climate extremes and trends of climatic elements using historical climate characteristics and quantification of relationships between atmospheric circulation and surface climate elements;

b) development and operation of a regional climate model featuring advanced generations of physical parameterizations and able to operate at very high spatial resolution as well as the creation of tools for constructing local probabilistic climate change scenarios, including to construct the climate change scenarios themselves; and

c) preparation of a regional spatial study on GCC impacts on crop yields using growth models and preparation of propositions for adaptation measures while emphasizing the effects of drought, diseases and pests.

Head
prof. Mgr. Ing. Miroslav Trnka, Ph.D.
mirek_trnka@yahoo.com

Address
Bělidla 986/4a, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic

Deputy for applied research
RNDr. Aleš Farda, Ph.D.
farda.a@czechglobe.cz

Address
Bělidla 986/4a, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic

Deputy for outreach and education
prof. RNDr. Petr Dobrovolný, CSc.
dobro@sci.muni.cz

Adrress
Bělidla 986/4a, 60300 Brno, Czech Republic

It includes:
Department of Climate Variability and Climate Change Analysis
Department of Climate Modelling
Department of Climate Change Impacts on Agroecosystems
Department of Atmospheric Matter Fluxes and Long-range Transport

Department of Climate Variability and Climate Change Analysis


Dobrovolný Petr, Prof. - head

Scientists :
Brázdil Rudolf, prof., RNDr., DrSc.
Chromá Kateřina, Ph.D.
Dubrovský Martin, RNDr., Ph.D.
Huth Radan, RNDr., DrSc.
Mikšovský Jiří, Mgr., Ph.D.
Pešice Petr, RNDr., Ph.D.
Řezníčková Ladislava, Mgr., Ph.D.

Ph.D. students :
Dolák Lukáš, MA, Ph.D.
Geletič Jan, Mgr., Ph.D.

 

Knowledge of current (observed) climate variability and its trends is essential to understanding and accurately estimating changes to be expected based on simulations of climate models in the form of future climate change scenarios. The department deals with the analysis of variability in atmospheric circulation in the Euro-Atlantic area and surface climatic elements in Central Europe, with an emphasis on the Czech Republic, over the period of instrumental and pre-instrumental observations. Emphasis is placed on the period beginning with the 1950s, from which time extensive sets of observed data have been available and the anthropogenic influences on climate have become significantly stronger.

The department’s main objectives are as follow:
a) description of climatic conditions (temperature, precipitation) in the pre-instrumental period through research in archival and natural proxy data;

b) reconstruction and analysis of hydrometeorological extremes and climate anomalies in the pre-instrumental period using standard paleoclimatic methodology;

c) evaluation of relationships between the reconstructed climate and natural climate-forming  factors;

d) development of methods for the description of atmospheric circulation using classification of circulation cells and their comparison;

e) quantification of the relationship between atmospheric circulation and surface climate elements, with an emphasis on temperature and precipitation and on the persistence of  circulation, as well as description of the temporal variability of this relationship;

f) description of long-term changes (trends) of a wider range of climate variables in the Czech Republic, including their seasonal dependence;

g) monitoring of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena (torrential rain, local flooding) at research sites, analysis of their meso- and micrometeorological causes;

h) development of statistical methods for modelling climate extremes in the non-stationary context; and

i) estimates of long-term trends in the frequency of occurrence, return periods, and intensity of hydrometeorological extremes using models of extreme values ​​on observed data.

 

To meet these objectives, the following key instrumentation will be used:

In the experimental catchment of the Milešovský stream, hydrological stations will be installed to help identify peak flow rates. Micrometeorological conditions of intense rainfall will be analysed in coordination with the meteorological radar located at the top of the Milešovka Mountain and measuring instruments installed on the meteorological tower located at the nearby Kopisty Observatory. Properties of sets of drops from intense precipitation will be analysed using a video-disdrometer. The synergy of these devices will help us to better understand the processes leading to extreme precipitation and subsequent local flooding and generally to better describe the cloud and rain-forming processes. A computational server will be used to perform statistical calculations.

Department of Climate Modelling


Farda Aleš, RNDr., Ph.D. - head

Scientists :
Lhotka Ondřej, Dr.
Štěpánek Petr, M.Sc., Ph.D.
Szabó-Takács Beáta, Dr.
Zahradníček Pavel, Mgr., Ph.D.

Ph.D. students :

Others :
Meitner Jan, Mgr.
Skalák Petr, Mgr.

 

Numerical models of the atmosphere as well as, for example, the hydrosphere (world ocean), cryosphere and biosphere are currently the most sophisticated tools available for use in modelling the climate and its development. For simulations, global climate models that perform computations on an appropriately geometrically distributed network of points covering the surface of the entire planet are primarily used. However, the extraordinary demands for computational power of supercomputers significantly limit the maximum usable resolution of this type of model (at present, 1 point in the model represents ca 10,000 km2 of land surface). To obtain more detailed information, it is necessary to choose alternative methods, such as so-called dynamic downscaling (use of a regional climate model in high resolution for the outputs of a global model). This modelling system is used for reconstructing past climate (historical and paleoclimatic simulations), research on the current climate (re-analyses and research on seasonal probabilistic–deterministic forecasts), and future climate projections based on predefined scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Individual scenarios are based on basic socio-economic variants of the future development of human society. As part of research on future climate, research activities also focus on quantifying uncertainties associated with its projections and on studying changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, particularly such events as extreme rainfall, droughts, heat waves, extreme frosts, and the occurrence of windstorms.

The department’s main objectives include:

a) operation of global climate model ARPÉGE-Climat (CNRM-CM5), which is being developed at Météo-France for performing simulations of past climate and projections of future climate;

b) operation and development of a high-resolution regional climate model called ALARO-Climate based on the ALADIN model, which will be operated both separately and also in conjunction with the ARPÉGE-Climat model; and

c) processing of model data focusing on the Czech Republic and Central Europe for the needs of the wider scientific community both within and outside the centre of Excellence at CzechGlobe.

To fulfil these objectives, the following infrastructure will be used:

a) internal computer networks and databases of the Department of Climate Modelling; and

b) a supercomputer, post-processing system, and backup capacities provided by the centre of Excellence at IT4Innovations.

Department of Climate Change Impacts on Agroecosystems


Trnka Miroslav, prof., Mgr., Ing., Ph.D. - head

Scientists :
Bartošová Lenka, Ing., Ph.D.
Büntgen Ulf, Dr., Ph.D.
Fischer Milan, Ing., Ph.D.
Hlavinka Petr, Assoc., Prof., Ph.D.
Lukas Vojtěch, Ing., Ph.D.
Pozníková Gabriela, Ing., Ph.D.
Rybníček Michal, Assoc., Prof., Ph.D.
Žalud Zdeněk, Prof., Ing., Ph.D.

Ph.D. students :
Hlaváčová Marcela, Ing.
Jurečka František, Ing.
Wimmerová Markéta, Ing.

Others :
Balek Jan, Bc.
Bláhová Monika, Mgr.
Orság Matěj, Ing., PhD
Pohanková Eva, Ing.
Semerádová Daniela, Ing., Ph.D.

 

Climate change results in a need for changes in the agricultural sector. These can already be seen in the cultivation of specific crops, their representation on arable land, the phenological development of crops and pests, growers’ approaches to species composition, and changes in technologies. Likewise, primary producers must cope with the impacts of heightened climate variability in terms of increased occurrence of extreme weather events. In economic terms, the occurrence of agricultural drought plays a key role. In addition to atmospheric influences and genetic characteristics of a crop itself, the soil and processes occurring within it are also integral to the growing process. They are fundamentally affected by temperature and humidity conditions, which directly depend on the energy balance of the active surface and the moisture balance of the specific locality.

The department’s main objectives are as follow:

The main objective is to assess the impacts of climate change on cultivation of the most significant crops. Yields, in particular, will be monitored under historical, current, and expected weather conditions. At the same time, proposals for adaptive measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change or to accelerate its positive impact will be formulated for specific areas and types of agroecosystems.

To fulfil this objective, the following partial objectives will be implemented:

a) determine potential and actual yields of selected crops (mainly winter wheat and spring barley),

b) monitor the phenological development of selected crops and woody plants,

c) define the ecological niche of selected diseases and pests,

d) analyse agricultural drought and its significance in field production,

e) assess soil climate, and

f) conduct research on change in agroclimatic conditions of cultivation.

Key infrastructure (instrumentation, buildings, laboratories):

To achieve the objectives, systems for measuring radiation and energy balance are used, as well as soil temperatures and moisture, both at point and spatial levels, such as a slotted scintillometer or eddy covariance system. Precision agricultural machinery, such as a small-plot harvester and small-plot seeder, are used to set up and run field experiments. Analyses of soil samples and biomass are  carried out in specialized laboratories.

Department of Atmospheric Matter Fluxes and Long-range Transport


Holoubek Ivan, Prof., RNDr., CSc. - head

Scientists :
Mbengue Saliou, MSc., Ph.D.
Serfozo Norbert, Ing., Ph.D.
Vítková Gabriela, Mgr., Ph.D.

Ph.D. students :
Komínková Kateřina, Mgr.

Others :
Holubová Šmejkalová Adéla, Mgr.

 

The activity of the Department of Atmospheric Matter Fluxes and Long-range Transport is based on provision and exploitation of measurements conducted at the Atmospheric Station Křešín u Pacova, which consists of a 250 m tall tower and the associated infrastructure. The station provides a unique opportunity for environmental monitoring and research thanks to a wide range of measurements of various chemical species, physical and meteorological variables. Most important is the combination of measurements for several atmospheric programs, including especially the greenhouse gases and also selected pollutants and aerosols. Emphasis is given on assuring the appropriate data quality and data transfer to several Czech and international databases, part of which are publicly available. An important aspect of the activity of the department is also technical solution for measurements in extreme conditions (high heights).

Aims of the department

Main aims of the department, which stem from the core partnership of the Global Change Research Institute within the ICOS network (www.icos-infrastructure.eu), include:

- long-term measurement of greenhouse gas concentrations and the dynamics of their fluxes,

- long term observations required for understanding the present state and predicting future behavior of the global carbon cycle and greenhouse gas emissions,

- monitoring and assessment of the efficiency of carbon sequestration and/or activities aimed towards reduction of greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale, including the description of sources and sinks by geographical regions and activity sectors.

Other aims include:

- contribution to the study of changes in radiation balance by measuring and interpretation of optical properties of atmospheric aerosols and

- studying the temporal variability, long-range transport and vertical gradient of concentrations of selected pollutants (mercury and tropospheric ozone) typical for the Central European background.